Let us assume that Bashar Al-Asad Steps Aside

Text of my commentary headlined: "Let us assume that Bashar Al-Asad Steps Aside" published by Iranian newspaper Khorasan on 8 January.

It was translated by BBC Monitoring

You can find the main text in persian at BORDERLESS

After seven months, Bashar Assad spoke once again and expressing his sadness at Syria's current situation, he proposed a five stage plan for a way out of the current crisis. The United States has described this plan as a "meaningless effort to maintain power" and Catherine Ashton, the European Union (EU) high representative for foreign affairs, has declared that Assad's resignation is the only option for a political solution. Mursi, the Egyptian president considers him a "war criminal", and Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister has described his remarks as "empty promises." The Syrian president's opposition believes that Bashar Assad is sacrificing the peace and security of his people for his own power mongering.

Let us assume that the claim by the Western/Arab concert, with solo music being provided by Turkey, is correct and after two years of bloodshed and killing in Syria, Bashar Assad will wake up and hand over power. What must be done after Bashar Assad's dismissal? The most optimistic scenario would be for armed groups to lay down their weapons and hold a comprehensive meeting with the participation of all Syrian groups. If we take a look at the experience of the region's other countries including Libya and Egypt, the varied Syrian groups must probably achieve a "comprehensive agreement" at the end of this meeting, which would depict Syria's political future. They can put this agreement to a referendum or they can establish a transition government on the basis of this agreement, which would represent all the groups. Syria's hypothetical transition government will provide the preliminaries for parliamentary elections to be held, just like similar cases in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, and it will take on the responsibility of its organization. After the election is held, the members of parliament will appoint a committee to prepare the "draft constitution" and after the public's approval, this constitution will be the basis of the establishment of "Syria's lawful government." We thus reach the "positive end to Syria's bitter crisis" and afterward, the people of this country will live their lives happily ever after. It seems that if a roadmap is to be defined after Assad's dismissal, it will be similar to the above mentioned scenario; a scenario that will resemble the role models of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt after the fall of their former governments. However, in view of Syria's indigenous requirements, they must use the role model offered by Iraq or Lebanon as far as the division of power among Syrian groups is concerned. If such a scenario is realized in practice, Western and Arab countries must hold victory celebrations and they will share in the happiness of the Syrian people.

However, all that we have so far mentioned is almost the repetition of the same thing that Bashar Assad, the Egyptian present recommended and explained in his recent speech in the University of Damascus. So why do Western governments and Bashar Asad's regional enemies refuse to accept it? The answer is clear. They are not seeking to resolve the crisis in Syria but have instead gambled their entire political and international reputation on the overthrow of Bashar Assad. These countries are not even prepared for free elections to take place in Syria, let alone Bashar Assad being one of the prospective candidates. Through the opportunity that has been created for them as a result of the revolutions in West Asia and North africa, Assad's domestic and foreign opposition are seeking to change the Syrian regime in accordance with their own desired criteria; even at the cost of death and homelessness of millions of Syrians. It is interesting that each of them harbours a different version of "their desired Syria" in their head. The United States and European countries are looking for a country that is coordinated with the West's values and policies and is not part of the axis of resistance. Egypt and Turkey wish for a Brotherhood orientated country a nd Saudi Arabia is after a Wahhabi state. This varied and contradictory ambitiousness is one of the reasons for their failure in overthrowing the Syrian government. Maybe the people of Syria understand the point that Bashar Assad's opposition is not prepared to weigh its political chances in free elections.

Source: Khorasan, Mashad, in Persian 08 Jan 13

i 1/2 BBC Monitoring