Has the new US plan for Syria been initiated

The election in the United States has come to an end and the Americans have promised that once the election race is finished, they will return to the scene of the Syrian crisis. The United States' regional and international supporters criticize this country's lack of a specific strategy regarding the Syrian crisis. Less than a week ago, with the publication of a report, David Schenker, an adviser to the Pentagon and one of the experts at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) reported the start of this phase. Schenker said that Walid Jumblatt has had a meeting with him in Lebanon and has criticized the United States' lack of a specific strategy regarding the Syrian crisis. According to Schenker, now that the US administration has put behind the election race, it will focus its concentration on Syria. The Doha summit is assessed as constituting a start for this phase.

The Syrian government's opposition are numerous and varied and they can be classified from various angles. The political opposition goes one way and the armed opposition another. The Salafis and Islamists have one dream for Syria's future and the seculars and the liberals have another. During 19 months of crisis in Syria, they have been unable to establish a joint path, a single approach, and a unified structure for themselves. This division is also completely evident among their international supporters. Saudi Arabia is providing weapons support for groups that are close to Al-Qa'idah including the Al-Nasra group. Turkey and Qatar have chosen a political/military path and are helping the forces of the Syrian "free army." The Europeans have pinned their hopes on political groups and are supporting the "opposition Transitional National Council" by any means possible. However, the Americans have differences of opinion with others over all the three above-mentioned groups.

The United States, which has been influenced by unsuccessful experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, and more recently in Libya, are not prepared to trust Al-Qa'idah and the Salafis. Furthermore, they are not particularly hopeful that Qatar and others will have significant influence on these groups. Consequently, even if Washington is prepared to trust these groups for Bashar al-Assad's overthrow, there is no guarantee that they will pay any attention to US policies in Syria's future. The saga of the attack on the US Consulate in the city of Benghazi in Libya once again proved that giving leeway to Al-Qa'idah and armed Salafis is to nurture an enemy in your own backyard. Washington also has a difference of opinion with the Europeans for a variety of reasons. Several European countries issued cartes blanches for the "Transitional National Council" political group months ago and France has announced that it recognizes this group as the Syrian people's new representative. But the Americans do not consider this group as possessing even the minimum characteristics for the acceptance of the role of opposition leader. Recently, Hillary Clinton announced in Zagreb that she considers this institution to lack the necessary capability and qualification for leading the opposition.

Based on news that has been received from Doha, it appears that the United States has chosen a new path. This is the same thing that Burhan Ghalioun, the former chairman of the Syrian opposition Transitional National Council, considered a "US plan" for Syria, the preliminary action to which would be to discard the opposition Transitional National Council. In their new plan, the United States has put forward another individual called Riyadh Saif. He is a businessman and a former member of the Syrian parliament with liberal beliefs that are close to those of the Americans. According to a plan put forward yesterday by Saif in the Doha summit, a new structure will be formed for the Syrian government's opposition groups, which will no longer be headed by the opposition Transitional National Council. This organization will have a 50 member Council and the opposition Transitional National Council can only have 15 representatives in it. However, the opposition Transitional National Council is opposed to this plan and no news have so far been received from Doha other than the continuation of disputes. But the important point is that when the United States is not prepared to trust Bashar Assad's political opposition, it will not open the way to his armed opposition. The latter have anti-US beliefs and over the past days, Western media, who seem to have suddenly woken up after 19 months of bloodshed, are accusing them of "war crimes." US pressure on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to reduce weapons support for armed groups is further testament to this claim.

Nevertheless, Saif and other individuals that the United States is seeking to put forward, will also be unable to play the role of opposition leader, at least in the short term. Consequently, it seems that in the near future, neither Bashar Assad's opposition will unite, nor will countries opposed to the Syrian regime become aligned. The important question by US think tanks, under today's conditions in Syria, is that even if Bashar Assad withdraws from power, who will take responsibility for providing security in Syria after months of excessive arms dispatch to this country? Akhdar Al-Ibrahimi, the special United Nations (UN) envoy for Syrian affairs, has warned in his latest press conference that Syria can turn into the "new Somalia!"

BBC Monitoring International Reports

 | November 14, 2012 |

Text of commentary by Seyyed Mohammad Eslami headlined: "Has the new US plan for Syria been initiated?" by Iranian newspaper Khorasan on 7 November.

Khorasan, Mashad, in Persian 07 Nov 12

i 1/2 BBC Monitoring