Right from the start of the dispute involving Tariq al-Hashimi (Iraq`s first vice president), many analysts regarded his fleeing Iraq as the best way to put an end to that crisis. Had the prediction about the flight of the first Sunni Iraqi vice president come to pass, it would have meant that in practice he had admitted the allegations regarding his participation in and management of terrorist activities. In that case, perhaps nobody would have dared to support him any more. However, Tariq al-Hashimi chose a different course of action and took asylum in Kurdistan.
As the result of many exclusive interviews, he aligned the global media with him, and both overtly and covertly he tried to involve international powers in Iraq`s domestic issues. His request for the presence of international observers and the involvement of the Arab League (in Iraq) was his first message to those whom he addressed without mentioning their names. However, the start of Tariq al-Hashimi`s dispute only one day after the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, and the continuation of that dispute has forced Iraq to face the challenge of its “national identity” much sooner that could have been expected. Article One of the Constitution
After having been freed from Saddam`s dictatorial regime, the Iraqis were faced with the question as to which strategy they had to choose in order to keep their ethnic and religious rainbow alliance together. The Iraqi Kurds had already thought about that issue, and they had at least implemented it as far as they were concerned. The proposed solution was to establish a federal system.
The Kurds who call their government the “Government of the Kurdish Region” (eqlim), earlier on in the year 1369 (year beginning 21 March 1990), by making use of Saddam`s conflict with Kuwait in the first Persian Gulf War, they had managed to set up a federal (autonomous) government. Therefore, after Saddam`s death, the wheel of fortune turned in such a way for the Iraqi people that in Article One of their Constitution they called their country an Iraqi Republic, which is an independent and sovereign state and which has a “parliamentary, democratic and federal republican government.”
Now, as a result of the new crisis in Iraq, many people, including Tariq al-Hashimi, claim that Iraq is on the verge of disintegration, of religious wars, and of its partition into three countries. Only a few days ago, John McCain, a senior American Republican senator and a member of the (Senate) armed services committee, told CNN: “It is very clear to me that a process of disintegration has started in Iraq, which will ultimately result in the partition of that country into three states. We should have kept some of our forces there.”
Yes! One of the first analyses in Iraq after the emergence of the crisis was that many observers said that the Iraqis would not be able to run their country without the Americans and that it was a mistake to withdraw American forces from Iraq. Turkish Prime Minister Even (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan, who had just left his sick bed, openly spoke of his opposition to (President Barack) Obama`s decision to withdraw the American forces from Iraq. He said: “Both in my face-to-face meetings and by telephone contact I stressed to Barack Obama and (Vice President) Joe Biden that the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq was not a good move and that those forces should have remained in Iraq until the establishment of democracy in that country.” Nevertheless, should we accept that our neighboring country that has long borders with our country will be divided into three countries, the Kurdish area, the Shi`i area, and the Sunni area? The Balance of “the Triangle of Power” in Iraq
The Iraqi political geography, which is the result of that country`s ethnic geography, is such a triangle that any unity between two legs of that triangle would settle the issue for the third leg. The balance of power in Iraq is made up of 20 percent Kurds, 60 percent Shi`is, and 38 percent Sunnis (some of whom are of course Kurds).
In the first glance, we must accept that the continuation of the political conflict in that country would leave no option but the disintegration of that country. After various proposed solutions, such as holding early elections, forming a majority government, and above all the inability of political groups to hold a national conference that would result in national reconciliation, the future prospects look dim. However, would the formation of three countries safeguard the ethnic interests of each side? Will the wishes of some countries in the region to bring about the collapse of a united government in Iraq be realized?
Some time ago, Iraqi officials claimed that Tariq al-Hashimi had written a letter to King Abdullah (of Saudi Arabia) and had promised him that he would not reveal the hidden secrets between them. However, a more important factor than Saudi Arabia`s interference in the dispute regarding Tariq al-Hashimi is the reference in those reports to the plan by al-Hashimi and by Saudi Arabia to partition Iraq. It is not farfetched to believe that (Saudi) Arabia and some other countries in the region are trying to partition Iraq and to break up what they call “the Shi`a crescent stretching from Iran to Lebanon.” An Iraq in which the Shi`is are influential in its regional policies is not desirable to the Arabs. In this connection, after Iraq refused to cooperate with the Arab League to put pressure on Syria, Qatar`s foreign minister said that Iraqi officials should clearly set out their foreign policy doctrine.
However, before the neighboring countries can be effective in Iraq, it is the Iraqi people who will decide their fate. We should remember that although the Kurds, the Shi`is and the Sunnis constitute the main groups in Iraq, nevertheless, each of those groups has different subgroups among them that will influence the decisions that are taken. In the first instance, it should be pointed out that, contrary to their expectations, the Sunnis would not benefit from the partition of Iraq. Nearly all the Iraqi resources (presumably oil deposits) are in the Kurdish and Shi`i-inhabited areas. Therefore, the Sunni Arab countries have nothing to offer the Iraqis that in the long term they can impose a small Sunni country in the Iraqi deserts on the Iraqi Sunnis.
On the other hand, recently all the Sunni (parliamentary) deputies ofSalahuddin Province left the Al-Iraqiyya list (Party). Their departure from that list means that they are not prepared to join the Al-Iraqiyya in continuing its ongoing war against the central government. At the same time, yesterday Kurdish Press News Agency, quoting Tactical Report website, reported that Mas`ud Barzani, the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, has asked Tariq al-Hashimi, Iraq`s vice president, to go to (Saudi) Arabia or to the United Arab Emirates. If that report is correct, it would mean that Kurdish officials are not prepared to continue paying a price for al-Hashimi.
During the past few days, the relations between the Kurdish autonomous region and the central government have greatly deteriorated. The situation has become so critical that the deputy interior minister of Kurdistan had angrily stated that although Kurdistan is part of Iraq, nevertheless, “we are not (Prime Minister) Nuri al-Maliki`s policemen.” In the course of the dispute regarding al-Hashimi, Jalal Talabani (the Iraqi president) has repeatedly supported his vice president. Although he spoke of (the possibility of) his trial in Kurdistan, nevertheless, he stressed that al-Hashimi was still his vice president. From such remarks one can conclude that before regarding himself as the president of Iraq, Talabani still regards himself as “the leader of the National Union of Kurdistan” and that together with Mas`ud Barzani, the president of the Democratic Party of Iraq`s Kurdish Region, he has decided to give refuge to al-Hashimi.
Therefore, we should not forget Jalal Talabani`s historic remarks when he said: “Let us imagine that we declare our independence. Iraq, Iran, Syria, andTurkey would not need to fight with us. How can we live if those countries only decide to close their borders to our traffic?” If the Iraqi president still believes in what he said before, which logically he should adhere to those views, he believes that the independence of Kurdistan would be “impossible.” There are other issues that support this argument. Some time ago, a senior Kurdish official, who did not want his name to be revealed, told Reuters: “Let me say it bluntly that the Kurds are not prepared to sacrifice their strategic interests and their allies for the sake of al-Hashimi.”
Therefore, while one should admit that Iraq is faced with a serious test and should move from ethnic and religious beliefs toward a “national definition of its identity,” it seems that despite the difficult and tense relations between them, the ethnic interests of the Iraqis would be best-served by a united identity. Therefore, returning to that country`s constitution is the only option for all those who believe in a united and powerful Iraq. Trying To Find an Answer to Tariq al-Hashimi`s Puzzle
The only point here is to try to find an answer to Tariq al-Hashimi`s puzzle. The mistake of Nuri al-Maliki, the central government, and the Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council, or anyone who is following Tariq al-Hashimi`s file was that they started to subject Tariq al-Hashimi to a judicial process at a time when his fall was interpreted as the fall of the Sunni minority, and when he was still regarded as the only high-ranking representative of the Sunnis by the media and the people.
It is believed that despite the populist noises and the harsh and extreme statements of politicians, in Iraq political issues are always decided in secret and behind closed doors as the result of compromises and bargains by various political players. Therefore, if the State of Law Coalition, led by Nuri al-Maliki, can separate the Sunni groups one by one from the Al-Iraqiyya Party, which he seems to be doing, or if gradually he can find another person who would be regarded as the accepted representative of the Iraqi Sunnis, Tariq al-Hashimi would become a spent force. It is also rumored that Arabia is trying to remove him from the scene so that once again some of the secrets of the Middle Eastwould be buried with him forever.
